Bonds Not Bound
The bond market is has a little bit better sense of itself through June 24th in terms of the curve:
But here is a chart that just keeps my head spinning. 2022 has started out as one of the worst performance years in the last 35+ across all asset classes!
The AGG has had 4 negative years since it began being tracked in 1986. The worst was 1994 at -2.9%. Last year the AGG was down -1.5%. So far this year, the AGG is down -10.9%!
The yield to worst has dropped from 9.5% down to 3.9% while teh duration has increased from 4.6% to 6.5%
But let us take a look at credit spreads. They are widening.
U.S. high-grade bond investors have extended the longest losing streak on record with net redemptions now moving past 13 consecutive weeks. Junk bond trading has shrunk over 22% from the same first 24 days of June as last year (2021).
As the economy toes the line of entering into an official "recession", eventually fundamentals are going to be very important. But when that timing lines up is a challenging question.