How Much Foreign Sales Exposure For The FAANGMs?
Let's take a look at where treasury rates are posting (through 9/29):
2-year -- 4.16%
5-year -- 3.98%
10-year -- 3.76%
30-year -- 3.71%
This makes 16 weeks of inversion.
Let's take a look at the DXY for a moment as well (through 10/1). We had a little bit of a dip for the week, but we are still at 112 (chart below from 12/31/1999 to 10/1/2022):
This is very meaningful as we look at equity markets today. The folks at Yardeni Research provide some amazing information and are definitely worth the look and time. According to Yardeni, the FAANGMs have derived 48% of their revenues outside of the U.S. Without a currency hedge, there are extreme headwinds facing these companies and thus to the broader markets as well.
Consider: 58% of of Apple's revenue comes from foreign sales exposure. 56% for both Meta and Netflix. 54% for Alphabet. 49% for Microsoft. 33% for Amazon.
Check out this 10-year chart looking at the DXY and the 10-year:
An elevated dollar puts A LOT of stress on global markets. Is this inflationary? Or...is this deflationary? Prices will eventually tell.