VIX at 17 a "No Fear" Situation - How to Make Sure?
Below are charts of the VIX YTD, 1-Year, and 3-Year as of 4/14/2023. As of 4/14, the VIX is at 17.07. This is the lowest the VIX has been since January 2022.
Some commentary from our friends at RCM Alternatives (Home - RCM Alternatives - Jeff Malec):
I don’t think this is all that odd. As can be seen below, VIX spends around half its time under 19. The past few years stubbornly hanging in the 20s and 30s may have been more of the outlier.
Arguments for no fear/low VIX in market =
- We are at 6-month highs
- Covid is firmly in rear view mirror
- Inflation readings moderating
- Belief near end of hiking cycle
- Fed added liquidity when needed (fed put back)
- Banking “crisis” seems one off/contained
Having said all that, there is a lot that could go wrong out there, and the odds of the market spinning out from here at a 17 handle VIX are now higher than when we are at a 25 handle.